American politics! Hey! Howdya like them apples? I’ve been asked by someone who scares the crap out of me to write something about the coming midterms.
I’m actually qualified to do this, having actually worked in Washington and Pennsylvania analyzing some of the very polls I’m going to present here. I’ll be putting on a non-partisan hat and just calling it the way I see it. This is a post intended for readers in UK, Australia and New Zealand, and is based on a more in-depth report I made earlier to one of my American clients.
Some caveats first. The mid-terms will not be held until Tuesday November 2nd, which at time of writing is some 250 days away. That is quite some time, but I do not believe that the game will change that much in the interim.
Also, my focus will be on the senatorial election, rather than the house election and the gubernatorial elections.
I’m doing this because the house seats have not been widely polled yet (in public anyway) and because they are much harder to call, since they are subject to faster swings. In gubernatorial races there is a much larger stress put on personality over party affiliation, and I expect a number of retirements and late entries in the next few months. The Senate races will dominate media coverage.
In any account I expect the house to follow the trend of the senate race, and for the gubernatorial landscape to look pretty similar to what it currently is after November 2.
So in brief, here’s my predictions:
- A 12 to 15% nation-wide swing to the Republicans, meaning that poll numbers will pretty much be where they are now. The Republicans may pick-up ground, but the Dems should claw this back in the campaign proper.
- 4 states where a democratic incumbent is quitting “leaving to spend time with the family” will go red, that is: Indiana, Delaware, Illinois and North Dakota.
- The Republicans to hold all their current seats.
- A pick-up of 5 additional seats for the Republicans: Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Wisconsin.
- California, Oregon, New York and Washington to be held by the Democrats, but to be a huge drain on their resources, which will allow the republicans to move their troops around much more effectively.
Let’s look at my calls, state by state:
North Dakota
This is currently a non-race and appears to be a ridiculously easy pick-up for the Republicans.
The Democrats do not have any clear nor apparent challenger, while the Republican is a 3 term governor.
Rasmussen last week put Republican John Hoeven 36% above the most likely Democrat, while Democrats own polling has him 21% ahead.
The last Rasmussen poll of the state found: “Sixty-one percent of North Dakota voters have a very favourable opinion of Hoeven, while just four percent (4%) view him very unfavorably.”
In the last presidential election, McCain won by 8.6%. Why is this a blue state to begin with?
Likelihood of a Republican: 95%
Delaware
Polls in this state have put former governor Mike Castle up by 29% as recently as early this month.
In incumbent is not standing and the previous likely candidacy of Joe Biden’s son Beau fell through. The now probable Democrat candidate Chris Coons has very poor recognition and does not appear to be either well funded or to have anything like the political machine that the Republicans already have in place.
Probability of Republican pick-up: 85%. Get ready for Delaware to cross the Washington.
Arkansas
This appears to be going red. Blanche Lincoln has lost ground since likely Republican candidate John Boozman (what a terrible name) emerged. Boozman has a high recognition in the state, being a current US congressman.
Lincoln has been trailing in every poll since November (and even then with the partisan Daily Kos), and appears to be losing ground hand over fist. Before Boozman emerged Lincoln was at least 16% behind every single potential Republican candidate.
Lincoln appears to have been caught in the anti-Democrat cross-hairs. Don’t let the fact that this is Bill Clinton’s home state—Arkansas voted for Bush II twice and McCain beat Obama by almost 20% of the total vote here in 08.
Probability of Republican pick-up: 80%
Pennsylvania
This is the one that the Republican really to win. I am actually considering returning to my adopted home state to help take that SOB Specter out. For years Republicans had to put up with Specter’s RINO* antics, before he finally switched sides in a cynical carpet-bagging move.
The GOP want him gone, and they want him gone bad. The Keystone State want him gone as well—He has consistently polled poorly, even amongst Democrats since switching sides.
How can he possibly stand up in an election year which appears to be becoming a referendum on Washington chicanery? He can’t.
Polling shows him not only behind, but falling further behind since the start of the year. In November/December there were polls which had Specter within striking distance, but he is now anywhere from 6 to 12% behind.
What’s more, independents do not find him appealing, and his support amongst democrats is weak: one poll showed close amongst registered voters, but a long way behind when only “likely voters” were counted—this is very bad news because it says that potential voters will just stay home rather than casting their vote for him. Voter turn-out and registration is much much lower in the United States than in other English speaking countries, Americans have to be coaxed to vote first and that will kill Specter off.
I cannot see a way out for Specter this time, in the eyes of many he is the epitome of everything that is wrong with Washington. Those type of games don’t go down too well in these parts.
Probability of Republican pick-up: 75%
Nevada
Harry’s time has come. He will pay the price for being the face of Washington politics and Obamacare.
There’s been a lot made of Obama telling companies not to go to Las Vegas, and the President’s “ban” from the city, but that’s all a sideshow and isn’t the reason why Reid will lose.
This race is a simple case of a prominent Senator taking a back-lash for belonging to the current unpopular party.
All polls show Reid consistently behind all potential supporters, even before a firm Republican challenger has been selected, and that’s a bad sign for Reid.
Probability of a Republican pick-up: 72%
Colorado
Michael Bennet is also out for the same reasons that Reid is out—the democrats are going to be on the losing side, and Bennet is just in the line of fire. Polls show him consistently double-digits behind, with again a stronger deficit in likely voters.
Probability of republican pick up: 72%
Indiana
This seat is now vacant, and because of that will be a Republican pick-up. Polling shows any Republican candidate winning by anywhere from 12 to 18%, and it’s hard to see a way that the Dems can get ahead. Things are confounded by the fact that potential Republican candidates have a high-recognition factor.
Probability of Republican pick-up: 70%
Illinois
This one is a funny one, and could very well be the one to watch. Before Massachusetts went red I would have ignored this one.
This used to be Obama’s own seat, and if the Dems lose this then Obama is in big trouble. Illinois is actually a pretty good sample of America, and if the Dems lose they will lose on the issues. My pick is that this race will be won or lost on Democrats and Independents in Chicago just simply not voting.
Probability of Republican pick-up: 65%
Wisconsin
I’m calling this Republican for the same reasons I’m calling Nevada: the tide is out on the Dems and Wisconsin is going to be overrun.
A lot of this will depend on who the Republicans put up. If they put up former governor Tommy Thompson then it’s going red for sure.
Probability of Republican pick-up: 60%, 75% if Tommy Thompson runs.
Oregon and Washington
The Republicans are holding out hope for the Pacific North West, citing a recent Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters showing the Republican candidate 2% up. I tend to treat these two states as two sides of the same coin.
I’m not convinced. I think that the North West has gone to the left over the past decade and will be a Dem hold. I don’t think wins in the North West won’t come without a price—the Dems will need to exhaust precious resources defending ground that was previously safe.
This is the reason the Republicans are talking these races up: this year the Republicans will have a significant resource and firepower advantage, and it behooves them to force their enemy to fight lots of small, disparate battles.
I’m talking about local Dems having to stay in their native states, and take donations that would have otherwise gone to more marginal states.
Probability of either going Republican: 35%
New York/California
These races will be tight, but I think that they will ultimately stay blue. Again, this will come at a huge cost for the Dems.
In California Barbara Boxer will be pushed, and it’s likely the race will get dirty, but she will ultimately win, even if that HP woman does have deep pockets.
Probability of Republican pick-up:35%
In New York the picture is less clear—recent polls have shown former governor George Pataki 2% ahead, but this is misleading: the sample space is small and only polled registered voters, and not likely voters.
Pataki is a hard bastard and will push hard, but I don’t think he will win out in the end.
Probability of a Republican pick-up: 40%
So why the swing?
The answer is not what is being put forward in the MSM. The common-knowledge answer is that the Republicans are ahead of the Democrats in the polls because of the economy, Obamacare and deficit spending.
There is some truth to that, but there is another, deeper reason. Polling of anonymous voters show a Republican lead, but polls of registered voters show a stronger lead, and polling of “likely voters” show a further lead still. This to me says that Democratic voters will just stay home.
This further confounded by general polling:
Obama’s approval has now been under 50% for some time.
Polling on the direction of the country show that most voters (by a 2 to 1 margin) believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Some 50% of anonymous voters are against the health care proposals, but 56% of “likely voters” are against it.
But for me, the big statistic is this one:
There is a net 60% disapproval (75% to 15%) of congressional performance, but Republicans only hold a small generic lead over Democrats.
This says strongely that Democrats won’t be switching sides, they just don’t feel motivated at all to vote for their tribal party.
I think that as many as 1 in 4 Democrats and over 50% of independents who voted for Obama will not turn out for the Dems this year. That’s a disaster for the Dems.
If the Dems resort to some parliamentary procedure to pass the healthcare bill, then they will lose by AT LEAST 9 seats.
*Republican in name only
Popularity: 27% [?]